After the halving...
First of all my apologies for doing a write up this late in the game. Personal circumstances prevented me from doing so on time. That being said, I think it is not the worst idea to do this write up now, with the first weekly close of BTC after the halving approaching.
Last few weeks I was reasonably sceptical that BTC would manage to reclaim the >10K range again. I am still not convinced but I am more doubtful that my scepticism is correct. Let's have a look at the weekly.
As you can see, we are still trying to break out of the range. Last time I mentioned that a peek above a certain level does not mean that level is actually broken. In that context I still consider us rangebound. That being said, the momentum seems to favour a more bullish view.
Looking at the daily you still see that we haven't really broken above the trading range yet (no full daily candle above the top of the TR) but you could say that the rising channel as drawn may give reason for optimism. Clearly BTC is holding in the top half of the channel and the EQ is acting as support for now. If we can somehow break above and preferable break through the S/R line above the TR as well, in an aggressive daily candle, then we are definitely challenging the 2019 high. If we fail to form a new high compared to the high of around a week ago, I am less optimistic.
The most troubling is that we failed to have a real effect of the halving. Another narrative that did not come to fruition. As you know, I am slightly sceptical about the entire concept of cryptocurrencies in the first place and I would be careful betting the farm on them. That said, they are still very interesting and profitable to trade, but also very risky. So, as always: trade safe!
Added a few hours later...
From what I can tell, we have been sucked back into the range just now with a pretty hefty Friday correction. It will be interesting to see how this develops over the weekend. To me it shows there still is no real action to suggest we will form a higher high compared to last year.
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