• Francisco Hernandez

Bitcoin up 13% from Year-To-Date High

Introduction


Bitcoin is up 13% from the year-to-date (YTD) high of $10,503. Recently, Bitcoin experienced a price pump which has broken through a few significant resistance points. In this article, I look at the resistance points Bitcoin broke through with the latest pump.

Bitcoin up 13% from year-to-date high


Bollinger bands


I have zoomed in to the last month. Bitcoin made significant price moves in the last couple weeks. I can tell by looking at the upper Bollinger band (white). Price broke outside of upper band by more than two standard deviations in price from the 20-day moving average (MA; red). The upper band is always placed at two standard deviations away from the middle band (red). Price managed to break through the upper band twice in the last few weeks. Then, there was a dump and price has been rising since. By the looks of this chart, Bitcoin faces resistance at the upper band around $12,407.23.

Bollinger bands


Fibonacci retracements


Price has surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement which marks half of the value of the all-time-high (ATH). Price has since tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, corrected, and looks like it is prepared to test $12,138 again. Given how the current candle is shaping out, it has a bullish bias but the lower wick and closing price was weak. Bitcoin price faces resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (i.e., $12,138).

Fibonacci retracements


Heikin-ashi technique


The heikin-ashi technique shows a neutral trend with a bullish bias. The trend began to slow as of four days ago. Although price has risen in the last couple days, the current candle does not look bullish enough for me. I want to see a much longer upper wick on it and I want a higher closing price than $12,105.50, the high of the candle four days ago. By the way, that is around the same price range as the upper Bollinger band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Heikin-ashi technique


On balance volume


The OBV has made broken past a previous high this year, making a higher high. This is bullish to me. With OBV up like this, it suggests an increase in buying pressure. Now that it was reached previous highs, I think this is a good sign.

On balance volume


Chaikin Money Flow


Same with the CMF. It was broken out into high highs. This is also bullish in my eyes. It not only has remained above the zero line, it bounced right off it. This also suggests increasing buying pressure.

Chaikin money flow


MACD


The MACD is looking good, although it has not made higher highs yet. The signal line (blue) is well above the MACD line (red) and both are on a trajectory upward. The histogram shows that the MACD has been mellowing out the last few days but are still in the positive range.

MACD


Conclusion


Price is facing resistance at the upper Bollinger band, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area, and at the previous high of the candle four days ago. Given the gains Bitcoin recently made, it makes sense to have a slight correction or more sideways movement. This is what I expect in the next few days. However, as I have written before in other articles, I expect price to reach higher levels by my target date in October 2020. Also, price has yet to pass hashrate, which I did not discuss in this article, but I think is an important indicator for the price of Bitcoin. Expect a slight correction with some sideways movement for now. Bitcoin is in a good position to continue making gains later.

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