Crypto acts like any asset...
Despite our many hopes, it seems that Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is very much acting like all other markets. Positive news boosts the price and negative news puts pressure on it. It is important that you look at the primary markets and not just the USA for this. So the slow recovery in China might be more important than the slightly worse news coming out of the US.
Does that mean we are out of the woods? I don't think so. If you look at the weekly we are currently testing a very important long term S/R level and we still haven't broken the 9 or 21 EMA.
Now, resistances are there to be broken, but not on my dime. Of course the benefits will be greatest if you're on the right side of the 'bet', but I see the current S/R level, as well as the weekly pivot as too big a risk to enter any long term positions.
Short term I am relatively positive that we might get to 7400 with a possible spike to 7500 (depending on the exchange) and how the overall market looks at that time will determine if we ge a hard rejection or a spike up and over.
As some of you may know, I have a particular love for the 12hr chart. The R1 pivot is at ±7400 but the 100 (blue) and 200 (red) EMA indicate that we may push a bit higher. Also the Stochastic still has room to move up. All in all, I am not too pessimistic about the short term future of BTC. I have no idea what the longer term holds, but I think a lot depends on the overall global economy. I am sure a lot of you think BTC has proved itself as a 'safe haven' by recovering as quickly as it did, but personally I think this has more to do with the size of the market and its relative incestuous nature. Sorry the analysis is a bit shorter than normal, but unfortunately some health issues in the near family have taken up most of my time this week. As always, trade safe!
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