• Francisco Hernandez

Crypto-to-crypto: Monero/Bitcoin an Overview on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Charts

Introduction


In this article, I write my first of a series on crypto-to-crypto trading pairs, starting with Monero to Bitcoin. I do a quick summary of the history in monthly, weekly, and daily time frames. I take a new approach to presentation--a gallery approach. This allows me to present more information in less space on the screen. I will present all time frames, starting with largest to smallest, in a gallery. This comes as a slide show. With the images below, you can expand and toggle over to see the remainder of the images. I will only discuss a few things from each time frame that are worth noting. This is not meant to be exhaustive. I challenge the reader to look at the charts themselves and find at least one thing worth noting I did not mention in this article. I will provide the charts and a small analysis, and you fill in the rest of the story. I will follow up by focusing on the daily time frame of these trading pairs.


Moving averages


On the monthly time frame, the candles are positioned to break over the 20-month moving average (MA). It looks like there was a bottom followed by a higher low. I would like to see the upcoming candles make a higher high since the low.


On the weekly, price is already over both the 20- and 50-week MA. It looks like price was testing the 50-week MA during the first quarter of 2020. Also, I should note the 20- and 50-week MA are converging. Should the 20-week MA rise over the 50-week MA, it can be considered a golden cross.


The last two images are on the daily time frame. Second to last is zoomed out and the last one is zoomed in. The zoomed out one shows is that all the MAs have been converging since 2020. In the zoomed in one, shows a series of death and golden crosses. Currently, it looks like the 20-week MA is going towards the 50-week MA, as if to form a death cross. It could also act as a support point though.


Monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages.


Fibonacci retracements


On the monthly, price has overall been dropping but seems to have found support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line. While I say support, I would still like to see at least a series of three candles to remain over the 78.6% retracement line.


On the weekly, I see a series of candles over the and testing the 78.6% retracement area. On this chart, I am more confidant in this area as a support level.


The second to last image is the daily. It shows what the monthly and weekly show in more detail. In the final zoomed in image, I see varying levels of support established over the retracement line.

Monthly, weekly, and daily Fibonacci retracements


Heikin-ashi technique


The monthly heikin-ashi chart, there was a clear bearish trend all through 2018 to 2020. Only since the start of this year has the trend turned neutral and recently with a bullish bias.


The weekly is showing the recent uptrend may be coming to a stop. The last three candles have been neutral with no identifiable trend. This is clear from the wicks both below and above the candles. Currently, a bearish candle has formed. Perhaps this is signaling the start of a downtrend.


The daily chart shows that the downtrend has indeed been happening throughout the last week. Now whether this trend will continue or reverse I have yet to see.



Chaikin Money Flow, On Balance Volume, and MACD


On the monthly chart, the CMF has been making a series of higher highs and lows. Although it is still below the zero line, it is moving towards it. The OBV has been falling but in recent months has made a low and is currently about to make a lower high at the bottom. If the OBV were to close at the end of August higher than the previous peak, it would be bullish. Should it stay lower, bearish. The MACD has just formed. What is clear is the MACD line is above the signal line and the histogram is in the positive. Although, the MACD and signal line are below the zero line, they are approaching.


On the weekly, the CMF is testing the zero line after a series of higher highs and lows. The OBV has made higher highs since the low. the MACD has also been on the rise and is currently testing the zero line. Overall, the weekly chart is bullish given the recent history. However, currently, it looks like a correction is on the way. I can tell because each indicator has recently been making bullish moves and are now in a bearish position (e.g., pointing down, about to cross to the downside, made a lower high, etc.).


On the daily, this bearish trend is more evident. The CMF, OMV, and MACD are all going down. The CMF is about to cross the zero line, the OBV is making lower lows, and the MACD crossed below the signal line and is moving towards the zero line.

Chaikin Money Flow, On Balance Volume, and MACD, monthly, weekly, and daily


Conclusion


On the monthly charts, the candles seem to be forming a bullish bias. As I went down to the weekly scale, I was able to see the bullish trend in the recent weeks. However, the weekly chart also showed the current environment to be forming a bearish bias or at least a slow to the uptrend. On the daily charts, the bearish trend in the last few weeks becomes evident. With the daily chart in mind, should the indicators cross below the zero lines, I do expect more downward trend. However, these areas may also act as support. Long-term on the monthly scale, I lean bullish. On the mid-term weekly scale, I am neutral. Finally, on the short-term daily scale, I am bearish. In the follow-up Monero/Bitcoin trading pair I will only focus on the daily chart having now covered the history in this article.

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