• Francisco Hernandez

Ethereum Broke Through 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level


Ethereum has been on the rise along with Bitcoin, however Ethereum appears to have been less volatile. Price has remained flat the last couple weeks. Ethereum has broken above a lower Fibonacci retracement, however, is still around 78% of the all-time-high (ATH). It has been a month now since my last article on Ethereum. In this article, I touch base with the charts.

Price remains stable after price pump

Bollinger bands

Price remained flat all through July until the last week when price began to pump. Price broke over the upper Bollinger band (BB; white) twice going into August. Since then, price has been settling down. Price is approaching the middle band (red; aka 20-day moving average), which could act as a support. For any continued gains, I would want to see price to bounce of the middle band and close above the upper band again.

Price approaches the middle band

Fibonacci retracements

In traditional markets, when prices reach the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, that asset is typically done for. Although cryptocurrency markets have traditional market features, they behave differently. Ethereum finally broke back over the 78.6% level. I expected a little more resistance at this level. It looks like it broke right through with no problem, perhaps riding on Bitcoin's coattails. I show the zoomed-in chart right below. Following that, I show the zoomed-out chart of the Fibonacci retracements.

Ethereum breaks over the 78.6% retracement level, last month

Ethereum breaks over the 78.6% retracement level, last year

Heikin-ashi technique

The heikin-ashi technique shows that the upward trend has come to an end. For the last week, price has had no definite trend. The current candle is biased as bullish but still neutral. I am looking for more bullish looking candles to form, such as the one that formed twelve candles ago: green with no lower wick, a long body, and a long upper wick.

Heikin-ashi technique is neutral

On balance volume

The OBV looks good now. It currently at a higher high year-to-date (YTD). This looks bullish and healthy for Ethereum. However, with everything I have looked at up until now, I do not think this bullish OBV indicator alone is enough for Ethereum.

On balance volume

Chaikin money flow

The CMF has made a high year-to-date (YTD) but has not since made a higher high. Another indication that explains the sideways movement Ethereum has recently seen. It could be interpreted that because the CMF did not make a higher high, that price will drop. This indicator should make a higher high to be bullish in my books.

Chaikin money flow


The MACD is bearish with the MACD line (blue) crossing below the signal line (red). The histogram (red) is negative and has been getting larger in the last few days. When the MACD makes this type of cross, it is typically taken as a sell signal.



With everything I have seen in today's charts, most of it appears neutral. That is except for the MACD and the CMF. Both these indicators are bearish. Overall, I think price will continue to move sideways. No major signs of any trends in place now. Again, as I have said in previous articles, Ethereum is likely riding off Bitcoin's gains. When looking at Ethereum, I always look at what Bitcoin is doing too. Despite that, Ethereum has been more stable in the last two weeks than Bitcoin. Therefore I expect more sideways movement for Ethereum.

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