• Henk ter Linde

Go away in May...

But always remember to return in September. It is a famous saying amongst traders. Last week I mentioned the last hurrah to 10.5K before we would be likely to see a big correction to the downside. So far, BTC is holding up a bit better than I expected. That said, I still see no reason why we would break 10K. Except the liquidation of some new shorts that is.

In BTC's entire existence, we have only traded above 10K (well, technically 9.9K) for 4 (!) months. 4 months in over 10 years. When I mean traded above 10K, I mean that the month opened and closed above 10K. The first month was December 2017. So in 30 months, we had 4 months above 10K. It would of course be great if we could row against the stream now and break that big 10K ceiling above us, but I think it is unlikely.

I do think it is possible we have a bull trap by peeking above 10K (again) maybe even see a challenge of 11K before we get a really hard and painful correction. Still hard to see when and how deep. We are also still waiting for the big correction in the legacy markets. If by some miracle that doesn't happen, we may break upwards. However, I think the effects of Covid and the recent 'troubles' are delayed and we will still see a big recession. I don't believe crypto will be contrarian during a recession.

So, for now I would not enter any long term swing position long or short. It could go down straight from here. It could have a liquidity run to 11K. It is basically unpredictable AF.

So, as always: trade safe.

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