• Henk ter Linde

# "I did it sideways..." #

In a sense, sideways movement is the most interesting for short term traders and for exchanges filled with impatient retail traders. The first have mastered the art of making good profits of 'small' moves and the latter will start 'betting' on a move happening soon, out of sheer boredom. Personally, I am enjoying a good cup of tea and a good book, but that did not stop me from glancing at the chart.

I think we may still have some upside left. If we have a completed wave 3 of an impulse 5 wave up (Elliott says hello) we could now be finished with the 4 or about to finish the 4. The 12 hr Stoch seems to suggest we have some upward movement left.

Now, of course we could break up though that resistance, but same point as always: is this really a market where we expect big breaks to the upside? Covid seems to go for round 2 in China, black lives still don't seem to matter, unemployment is rising and the real impact of the social distancing measures is still to come, imho. Unless something amazing happens, I think it is more likely that the legacy markets will soon correct violently (after the Robin Hood hype has settled down) and crypto will follow legacy. It could also decide not to, but that is still a believer's dream, if you ask me.

As the 4hr shows, we did hit the 65 to the tick, but the 707 is the new 618, so I am guessing that this fib (square root of 50, technically not a fib number but neither is 50, long story....) coinciding with the downsloping resistance line is no coincidence. We shall see. It could also keep going down from the 65, but somehow that doesn't feel right and it also is a horrible EW count. Nobody knows for sure of course, but I see a bull trap before a hefty correction as most likely.

If you ask me, we would be blessed if BTC started (remains?) ranging between 6.5 and 10 and possibly 5.4 and 10. And I mean for a year or so. Not a few more weeks. That would mean that a move to the bottom of that range is most likely.

Now all this depends on the move we will see in legacy. Not that we copy it, but we won't act too differently. The legacy markets are still surprising me, so I could be totally wrong. However, I feel an end to that 'artificial movement' is due at any time.

That is why, as always, I recommend you to trade safe.

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