Is $10K Still In Play?
As indicated in my post from last week, we broke up from the broadening wedge, attempting to break the downward trend. As I write this, we just go rejected from the 9K level, which was also the top of an ascending wedge.
At the moment I am still reasonably confident that this retrace will bounce either at the 236 - where we are now - but more likely at the 382 or .5 fib retrace. As long as we stay above 7821, I see little to no reason to change my prediction from last week. The most likely support based on the BTSE chart would be 8180.
All in all, BTC still looks good, but we are not out of the woods yet. The 9200 level we got rejected from is important and as long as we are below 10.3xxx (the China Pump High), we are technically still in a down trend. One last interesting thing to remark is the shape of the candle for Sunday Jan 19th (with 7 hrs to go in that daily candle): this is a typical short + long squeeze in a single play. I will never cease to be surprised how many people long resistance and short support. Do not fall into that trap. There is a never a straight line up. If anything interesting happens after daily/weekly close, I will add to this post but for now I expect the week to close around 8,6/8,5K with a slight run up straight afterwards to close by the existing CME gap again. The first few days of next week will determine the outlook for the rest of the month and probably even the first quarter. Trade safe!
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