• Henk ter Linde

Is BTC rangebound and how does the CME gap come into play?

I figured it might be important to do a little writeup before the weekend starts. All I hear around me is bullish sentiment and although I am not necessarily saying that is nonsense, I think a word of caution might not be misplaced. For a few weeks I have been hammering on the range I think we are in.

This time I also included the (weekly) 9 and 21 EMA. To be fair, these still look bullish, but they are lagging indicators, so they turn after price does. That said, there are two scenarios. One is that we are getting rejected from the top of the range as indicated. The other is that we break out and move up. Now that is by no means impossible, but there is this little thing called a CME gap...

To me it isn't particularly bearish or negative if we correct here, fill the CME gap, maybe even continue to the bottom of the range (6K) before we move on up. And yes, there is even a scenario where we go below 3K. Personally, I would love that because that would mean the rebound from that correction is much higher than if we go up from here (worst case scenario) or even after we corrected to 6K again.

Another thing I noticed is a retreat by the alts. Not a sure thing, but normally that could indicate a correction of big daddy BTC is coming too.

All I really know is that weekends are always a bit scary during 'sideways trading near a resistance'. So, as always: be safe, trade wisely and have fun!

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