• Henk ter Linde

Nothing has changed, really

Hello again. It is always hard to come up with a great insightful story when in reality all is still pretty much the same as it was last week. We have seen a breakout attempt (or orchestrated move) that got rejected and we are still fighting the same area of resistance as last week.

So, for now, I think we can more or less expect that BTC is highly dependent on the legacy markets. If the economy tanks even further, I believe that BTC will follow and if they somehow miraculously recover, BTC will recover as well. We can add all kinds of complexities like the halving etc, but in the end a market is nothing but a balance between supply and demand and I don't really believe there is a huge new demand for BTC, other than perhaps some inside players moving BTC around.

That being said, it is absolutely delightful to day trade it, if you are so inclined. Of course, you need to practice proper risk management and probably do not go within 6 ft of any highly leveraged plays, but as we have seen in Florida, not everyone is smart enough to assess risks properly. If we just look at the plays since the big drop, you can see how playing leverage and shorting could have been extremely profitable. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and probably you would be wiser to play only 50% of these moves, even though I already capped them at the 4hr bodies in this example of short term swing plays.

Probably for some, this is the time to make their year. For others, long term HODLers, long term swing players and the 'active investors' (don't be an active investor), this market is not the most promising. If I look at the monthly, there is one line that strikes me the most...

It is the green 'support line' that starts at the 2014 high, connect to the 2018 bottom and that seems to be respected by the March wick down. Could it be that was the spring? As I said in earlier posts: definitely. However, I think that line and possibly even the top of the lower green TR need to be retested. The market is not going to bounce back without good reasons. Now, some consider the halving to be a good reason and I honestly can't argue for or against that. I (and the same goes for everyone else) have never seen BTC in a crisis, so we have no idea if that S/R range we are fighting now is going to be insurmountable or that certain parties within the ecosystem manage to push price back over it. As a trader, these times are wonderful. As a believer or investor in crypto, maybe a little less so. So, as always, be careful and stay safe. And remember that every trade you make has a counterpart that doesn't agree with you, so always ask yourself 'am I the smartest person in this trade?'.

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