• Henk ter Linde

Ok... So, I did say 10K, didn't I?

Two weeks ago I made a case why a breakout of the channel we just broke out of could (not would) lead to a challenge of the 10K level. One of the limiting factors was the Xi--pump to 10.3K, end of October. 10K is already a formidable psychological barrier in itself, but by adding the 10.3K peak just above it, a true bullish breakout will be even harder.

Best way to show you what I think is going on longer term is using the chart above. Had to use the Bitstamp chart, as it provides a longer history than the BTSE chart. IMHO, it is most likely we are in a long term consolidation from the ATH. I expect a run up to around 16K because of the halvening. This time is a little different than before, because all the investment needed by miners to stay relevant. So, best educated guess is that the top will be around the time of the halving, if it has an effect at all.

For the second comparison we also need a chart with longer history, to show how important this level we are at really is. If we break above it, we still have some important levels to break, but I definitely still see 10K (but actually 10.3K) as a likely target. If we get a hard rejection from this level, all bets are off and we might be looking at a return to 6K.

On a more detailed level, short term, I would expect a retrace here (707 is the new 618) but if the bulls manage to push it up past 9.2K, we could be in for quite a surprise.

These levels are where the risk is highest (both long and short) and the gains are highest. However, I would not enter now, until we have some confirmation if we break up on longer timeframes. If that means losing a few % in gains, so be it. As always: trade safe!

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