Ok, we made $10K. What's next?
We hit the 10.xxx target as predicted. So what is next for BTC? Will we just keep going up? Well, surprise, surprise, but I don't know. I do have several scenarios that may play out. Let's start with the most short term bearish one. It is also the one I see as most bullish longer term, but it would require a bit of patience.
In this scenario are forming an inverted Head & Shoulder (not a pattern I hold very dearly) which would make sure the bulls have enough time to accumulate and get some money back from the FOMO crowd that went x100 on breaking 10K. It fits the slightly longer timeframe chart from my previous post as well.
Of course the retrace doesn't have to be this deep, but it would not surprise me one bit. It would be a very healthy development for BTC to grow into 2020. Another scenario is that we are in a smaller fractal of what happened in 2018/2019. In that case we would rise relatively quickly after this recent high and create a blow off top, probably around the 11.5xx range. Problem is that parabolic rises have very hefty corrections, so we would be down in low 8s, high 7s soon after. Lots of people would lose big time, since playing a blow off top is hard and risky.
My personal preference is the first scenario, where we might even see a small retrace, complete the first wave a bit higher (10.5-ish) before retracing. It really only matters if you day trade where exactly that intermittent top lies and where the retrace would begin. And let's be honest: if you day trade you do not rely on a blog online for your strategy. At least, I hope not. As always, play safe out there. Risk Management is key and don't over-leverage.
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