• Henk ter Linde

So, what the *bleep* happened?

For the second week in a row I need to admit that I am totally baffled by the price action of BTC. I was not expecting a clear decoupling from legacy markets and I figured that the halving was mostly a myth. So, why did BTC act the way it should not have? At least not according to fundamental and technical analysis. Well, my analysis to be fair. And that has been a bit off lately.

Let's have a look at the weekly.

I fully expected the combination of several factors to act as resistance at the level of the 21MA, but what happened is that we broke right through. We are now testing two other resistances, namely the long term trend line support and the diagonal resistance line above. Combine that with the fact that I believe we may have to retest the 200 MA, and I think - once again - that it may be down before we go up. However, I would not blame you for not believing the bearish view.

Also because the 21 MA is now acting as support as is the previous S/R level at ±7800. It all looks possible but what worries me is how much of a run we would need to go on if we really break those resistance levels. Maybe the daily can help.

As you can see, I have added another TR here, one we are currently also challenging the top of. If we break out of either (and depending on your style) the descending broadening wedge or the TR, we should technically see a massive run up. Based on what though? Just the halving?

Admittedly I can have severely underestimated the importance of the halving, especially if my recent track record is anything to go by, but I think it is more likely that the players be playing. Creating some FOMO in anticipation of the halving. If we break the magical 10.4K however, you can be sure that we are in for a treat... Break 10.4 I said, not sneaking a peek above it but a full daily candle above it. Until I see that happening, I still think that we will remain in the TR as indicated above.

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