• Douglas Tan

US Equity Market impacts and drives global economy sentiment – Bitcoin price movement is affected

All eyes are on US equity markets right now, as the annual reporting period is in. Notable over-One-Trillion-Dollar-Market-Capitalization companies reported their earnings in this session, which consists of Microsoft $MSFT, Apple $AAPL, Google $GOOGL, Amazon ($AMZN) (MAGA), not to mention Tesla $TSLA, having their stock price boosted due to their 2019 performance.

With attention right now is in US equity market, notable institutions, hedge funds, traders, and other big players are leaning toward these kind of asset classes. Bitcoin will likely see its next price movement when this reporting period ends.

Taking those sentiments into account, as well as applying analysis of BTC/USD pair on February 5th 2020, at 18:00 (UTC + 7) using 6 hour timeframe with indicators including of Moving Average (9, 26, 100), Stoch RSI, RSI and Fibonacci Retracement, there are several things to note :

- Current price is at $9,374 level, price once dipped all the way down to $9,076 before making the pullback.

- Fast moving average lastly crossed slower moving average (9, 26) at February 4th 2020 (with + sign), which signals downtrend possibility

- Moving Average 100 (MA100) is still going up from $8,810, still has some gap with current price

- Stoch RSI is hovering around 15 point and still climbing up, indicating oversold territory, which may lure buyer into current situation

- RSI has reading above 50 point (57), showing uptrend bias is still intact and ongoing

Several possibilities for the next couple of days regarding BTC’s price action :

- Current price action of $9,374 is in the middle of established uptrend channel (see 2 horizontal green lines), which suggests the willingness to test the previous resistance of $9,600 once again. Supported by low Stoch RSI reading as well as RSI above 50, crystalize the momentum for price action to go to the upper side of the channel.

- Downside possibilities when we view it as MA cross, tends to be seeking downward movement to $9,100 (lower side of the channel). When this happens, most likely the price action will go to $8,900 level, where 0.5 Fibonacci golden ratio resides.

My main takeaway :

Price action has bullish bias, aiming to go to $9,600 for the nearest stop. If price happens to get corrected below the lower green channel ($9,100), it is probable that we revisit $8,900.


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