What did I miss?
Hello all! Sorry for being a bit late again this week, but I was on a well deserved vacation. I needed some sun, a new scenery and some wind in my hair. Did not look at the charts much but when I opened them today, all I could see was (almost literally) this staring me in the face:
There really is not much more to say. No matter how much I love all the detailed analyses with EW counts, extremely complex patterns, SMAs, EMAs, harmonics etc, sometimes simple is best. All we need is a weekly candle opening and closing above that line. So this weekend the fight will be over the weekly opening. My guess is that we will get rejected, but I have been too pessimistic lately. There is some logic behind a further rise though. That is the only chart that explains all the positive developments in Silver, Gold, stocks, etc., namely the DXY chart.
If the value of the dollar rises (as some think it will) then all the other markets will go lower, as the dollar becomes a more interesting asset. However, I am not so sure the dollar will do deflation at all. I am more in the other camp. The inflation side. I just don't see how the dollar is set to increase in value right now. Short term: yes. We need some relief as it is severely oversold.
So we might see some upside before we see further downside. There is even a very scary macro scenario which would fit with the US completely messing up the Covid crisis and perhaps making some more dumb decisions during the rest of the year. I am not saying it will happen, just arguing that it could. If that occurs the US would be in very serious trouble and people would be exchanging their fiat for Euros, Yens, Gold, Silver, Stocks, etc faster than you can say 'recession'.
BTC might reach a new ATH in USD if that pans out, but I am not so sure we should rejoice about that. So, let's hope that this interpretation of the DXY developments is completely wrong. It very well could be. Unless you all keep not wearing a mask and insist that it will simply all go away.
Trade safe and be safe and keep an eye on that blue line this weekend, ok?
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